Canada's Strategy for a Fractured International Order Strategic framework for navigating a world of fractured international norms, declining multilateral cooperation, and rising great power competition, as articulated by Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum, Davos, January 2026. This strategic plan was extracted by Claude (Anthropic AI) from Prime Minister Carney's speech "Nostalgia is not a strategy" delivered at Davos on January 21, 2026, as reported by The Guardian. The speech was written by PM Carney himself and represents Canada's doctrine for adapting to fundamental shifts in the global order. Government of Canada GOC ca-gov The federal government of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney Mark Carney Prime Minister Canada leading middle powers in flexible, values-based coalition building while maintaining sovereignty and wielding the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules collectively in a fractured international order. vision-001 To navigate the new geopolitical reality through principled pragmatism, avoiding both isolation and subordination, by acting collectively with allied middle powers to uphold democratic values and multilateral cooperation in the face of great power unilateralism. mission-001 Legitimacy The power of legitimacy remains strong when wielded together with allied nations Integrity Maintaining moral and ethical principles in international relations even as norms fracture Rules-Based Order Commitment to multilateral institutions and international rules despite their current challenges Sovereignty True sovereignty through collective action, not the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination Pragmatic Multilateralism Being principled and pragmatic in dealings with other nations, adapting multilateralism to new realities Variable Geometry Form flexible, issue-specific coalitions with different partners based on shared values and interests 2cd4559f-2aa6-4690-b74a-c36e33774bf8 1 Variable Geometry Coalitions: Form flexible, issue-specific coalitions with different partners based on shared values and interests. "Variable geometry" involves forming different coalitions for different issues, based on values and interests, rather than relying on fixed alliances. This flexible, adaptive approach contrasts with the concrete certainties of the post-war international order. As PM Carney stated: "Middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu." Coalition Coordination Establish mechanisms for coordinating with middle power nations on shared challenges 89153257-d14b-4242-8b6f-53ec79db56c5 1.1 Issue-Based Partnerships Identify and develop partnerships tailored to specific policy domains and challenges a41296dc-79c5-4070-aca6-503dba068671 1.2 Trade Diversification Reduce dependence on single trading partners and pursue strategic economic relationships 37509e9e-c516-4aba-82b9-704e4efcaad5 2 Trade Diversification: Reduce dependence on single trading partners and pursue strategic economic relationships. Canada seeks to link trade with Asian and European nations while pursuing pragmatic engagement with China, including courting Chinese investment in Canada's oil sector and scaling back tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles - representing a break with US policy. Asian Trade Links Expand and deepen trade relationships with Asian nations beyond traditional partners 1050d6f3-888c-4a4b-b63f-6839bd21d163 2.1 European Integration Strengthen economic ties with European partners and explore new trade arrangements d34fcb49-1289-436b-8565-7e64debfba33 2.2 China Engagement Pursue pragmatic economic engagement with China including investment in energy sector and revised trade policies 6f874b91-49ca-426c-a40f-24f24426c401 2.3 Sovereignty Defense Stand firm with allies facing territorial aggression and defend democratic sovereignty 7d717dbe-abf3-4afc-a1ff-8a3ee62f0ca7 3 Sovereignty Defense: Stand firm with allies facing territorial aggression and defend democratic sovereignty. PM Carney emphasized that "compliance will not buy safety" and warned against negotiating from weakness or accepting subordination. Canada stands firmly with Ukraine, Greenland, and Denmark against territorial threats. Ukraine Support Continue military, financial, and political support for Ukraine's defense against aggression d5a9ff3f-4159-410f-a30a-01472dc63b76 3.1 Greenland Solidarity Stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark against territorial claims and pressure 9a392536-a378-440a-900c-8bddcc281732 3.2 Democratic Alliance Strengthen coordination with democratic nations resisting authoritarian pressure and territorial aggression 7112010f-05f8-49e1-bda2-a19c0d2f7733 3.3 Institutional Resilience Maintain and adapt multilateral institutions while acknowledging their limitations f9c06ae7-163f-4568-a7d3-dac60568aa86 4 Institutional Resilience: Maintain and adapt multilateral institutions while acknowledging their limitations. As former UN Ambassador Bob Rae noted in the article: "You don't abandon those institutions, and you don't give up on them. But you do need to recognise that in the real world, they're very challenged." Canada will work to uphold the architecture of collective problem-solving despite superpowers taking the law into their own hands. Multilateral Engagement Continue active participation in and support for multilateral institutions despite their current challenges f8d0eb7c-e727-49d5-a9a1-a625c8bc720d 4.1 Institutional Reform Advocate for reforms to make international institutions more effective in the current environment 3571d3ff-89fb-4019-9247-5210117459da 4.2 Rules Advocacy Wield the power of legitimacy, integrity, and rules collectively with like-minded nations bfa77ba6-2f1e-4ff8-80c2-81b2f867be1d 4.3 Strategic Adaptation Avoid both isolation and subordination by adapting to new realities without abandoning core values d7f508aa-e79a-4feb-9940-fa7d2004e188 5 Strategic Adaptation: Avoid both isolation and subordination by adapting to new realities without abandoning core values. As PM Carney warned: "We negotiate from weakness. We accept what is offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating. This is not sovereignty. It is the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination." Canada must chart a course between building "fortresses" and accepting subordination, recognizing that "the old order is not coming back" and "nostalgia is not a strategy." Economic Resilience Build economic resilience against weaponization of economic integration, tariffs, and supply chains 708fda6a-ae57-46a3-8b51-732ed86b743b 5.1 Strategic Independence Maintain independent policy positions where Canadian interests and values diverge from great powers af055d85-d184-4a9c-8ad0-7e7aa0af6d4b 5.2 Collective Strength Work with other middle powers to be stronger together rather than competing to be most accommodating 462ef345-a5dc-43f7-a09d-54a28d9b7eed 5.3 2026-01-21 2026-01-21 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/21/nostalgia-is-not-a-strategy-mark-carney-is-emerging-as-the-unflinching-realist-ready-to-tackle-trump Owen Ambur owen.ambur@verizon.net